BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mississippi Kite In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieBirds of prey

Mississippi Kite in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-69%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mississippi Kite has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Mississippi Kite In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±126.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.140.000.57
20270.130.000.56
20280.130.000.56
20290.120.000.55
20300.120.000.55

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Mississippi Kite in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PantexTEXAS122023
TenmileTEXAS62023
ChanningTEXAS42010
DoughertyTEXAS42022
LakinKANSAS32022
PlymellKANSAS32021
FeltOKLAHOMA22024
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA22018
LamesaTEXAS22024
PlainsTEXAS22023
SkellytownTEXAS22010
DalhartTEXAS22024
FlaglerCOLORADO12025
Arsenal 2COLORADO12025
SedanNEW-MEXICO12022
ClovisNEW-MEXICO12009
HobbsNEW-MEXICO12013
LoganNEW-MEXICO12019
HardestyOKLAHOMA12002
PostTEXAS12024
CircleTEXAS12015
MiamiTEXAS12025
FloydadaTEXAS12023
ClaytonvilleTEXAS12002
FrionaTEXAS12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.