BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mississippi Kite In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Mississippi Kite in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-57%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mississippi Kite has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Mississippi Kite In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.000.58
20260.150.000.58
20270.140.000.57
20280.140.000.57
20290.130.000.56

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Mississippi Kite in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PantexTEXAS122023
TenmileTEXAS62023
ChanningTEXAS42010
DoughertyTEXAS42022
LakinKANSAS32022
PlymellKANSAS32021
FlaglerCOLORADO22024
FeltOKLAHOMA22024
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA22018
LamesaTEXAS22024
PlainsTEXAS22023
SkellytownTEXAS22010
DalhartTEXAS22024
SedanNEW-MEXICO12022
ClovisNEW-MEXICO12009
HobbsNEW-MEXICO12013
LoganNEW-MEXICO12019
HardestyOKLAHOMA12002
PostTEXAS12024
CircleTEXAS12015
MiamiTEXAS12022
FloydadaTEXAS12023
ClaytonvilleTEXAS12002
FrionaTEXAS12022
PanhandleTEXAS12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.