Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Black Vulture Population Trend in Pennsylvania
Black Vulture in Pennsylvania has surged: up 490% on the route-weighted index since 1979.
+490%Since 1979
49Routes In State
42Years
Notable Black Vulture Trends in Pennsylvania
long arc increasecomputed index
Black Vulture has surged in Pennsylvania: up 490% on the route-weighted index since 1979.
Black Vulture Population Forecast in Pennsylvania
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 100% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+100%Change by 2029
0.40Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.8195% range
±113.5%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| 2026 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.78 |
| 2027 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.79 |
| 2028 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| 2029 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
Black Vulture Survey Routes in Pennsylvania
| Mt Gretna 2 | 37 | 2017 | 2006 |
| Landisburg | 10 | 2017 | 1981 |
| Drehersville 2 | 7 | 2021 | 2006 |
| Doe Run | 6 | 2021 | 1979 |
| Berwick | 4 | 2022 | 2022 |
| Doylesburg | 4 | 2023 | 2015 |
| Ryde | 4 | 2003 | 2003 |
| Peru Mills | 4 | 2017 | 1989 |
| Jacobus | 4 | 2024 | 2010 |
| Aspers | 4 | 1988 | 1988 |
| Lovelton | 3 | 2022 | 2022 |
| Honesdale | 3 | 2023 | 2023 |
| Schaefferstown 2 | 3 | 2024 | 2008 |
| Shrewsbury | 3 | 2021 | 1997 |
| Middletown | 3 | 2024 | 1992 |
| Leola | 2 | 2023 | 2014 |
| Rosecrans | 2 | 2013 | 2013 |
| Mount Joy | 2 | 2024 | 1988 |
| Brunnerville 2 | 2 | 2021 | 2016 |
| Williamsburg | 2 | 2013 | 2008 |
| St College | 2 | 2017 | 1993 |
| Bendersville | 2 | 2023 | 1997 |
| Chatham | 2 | 2024 | 1998 |
| New Ringgold | 2 | 2015 | 2015 |
| Clearfield | 2 | 2021 | 2012 |
Black Vulture Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.