BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black Vulture Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesBirds of prey

Black Vulture in Tennessee has surged: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

18×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Vulture Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Tennessee: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black Vulture Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Tennessee is projected to fall about 49% by 2030 — from 8.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 2.1–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–6.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Tennessee is projected to fall about 49% by 2030 — from 8.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 2.1–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.81.85.8
20273.91.95.9
20284.01.96.0
20294.02.06.0
20304.12.16.1

Black Vulture Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Black Vulture in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mansfield3820251974
Moscow3120251967
Whiteville2920251966
Bradyville1620211968
Tiptonville1320251989
Tibbs1120251967
White House1020191967
Peytonsville1020251966
Trace Collinwood920182016
Humboldt820252000
Union Hill820242004
Jones Gap620192015
Wrigley620221966
Campbellsville620171968
Petersburg620121968
Signal Mtn520251989
Big Sandy520241972
Pond Creek520241984
Collinwood520251974
Lewis Forest520221976
Glen520251970
Jefferson Cty520111966
Belotes Bend420181967
Jasper420251998
Silver Pt320241967

Black Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatexasvermontvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.