BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Vulture Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Black Vulture in North Carolina has surged: up 610% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+610%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Vulture Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in North Carolina: up 610% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black Vulture Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in North Carolina is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 1.6–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in North Carolina is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 1.6–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.51.43.6
20262.61.53.7
20272.61.53.7
20282.71.63.8
20292.71.63.8

Black Vulture Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Black Vulture in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Climax8220241994
California2420131975
Youngsville1920222009
Ostwalt1720242012
Wilgrove1520242002
Saxapahaw1320231968
Flay1220242000
Raeford1220091995
Lloyd Xroads1020242006
Jordan820242001
Eden820242012
Dortches820241990
Mcginnis Crossroad720222010
Cypress Cr620212015
Monticello620242000
Bullock620241997
Siloam620242007
Cypress Lakes620232007
Oakboro520242006
Supply520241994
Durham520241994
Sturgills520242009
Jones Corner520232011
Speed420241966
Hamlet420221998

Black Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorkohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.