BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black Vulture Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesBirds of prey

Black Vulture in North Carolina has surged: up 566% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+566%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Vulture Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in North Carolina: up 566% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black Vulture Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in North Carolina is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 3.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.7–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in North Carolina is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 3.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.7–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.61.53.8
20272.71.63.8
20282.71.63.9
20292.81.73.9
20302.81.74.0

Black Vulture Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Black Vulture in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Climax6020251994
California2420131975
Ostwalt2020252012
Saxapahaw1320231968
Dortches1320251990
Congleton1320252005
Raeford1220251995
Arcola1020251974
California 21020252014
Lloyd Xroads1020242006
Speed920251966
Youngsville820252009
Mcginnis Crossroad720222010
Myrtle Grove620251997
Rose620252022
Eden620252012
Cypress Cr620212015
Siloam620242007
Gupton620252001
Cypress Lakes620232007
Oakboro520242006
Flay520252000
Durham520251994
Sturgills520242009
Jones Corner520232011

Black Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorkohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.