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Species · Alabama · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black Vulture Population Trend in Alabama

All statesBirds of prey

Black Vulture in Alabama has surged: up 144% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+144%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Vulture Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Alabama: up 144% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black Vulture Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Alabama is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 2.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.6–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Alabama is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 2.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.6–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.91.54.4
20273.01.54.4
20283.01.54.5
20293.01.64.5
20303.01.64.5

Black Vulture Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Black Vulture in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wheeler Dam5120252012
Epes2920241981
Grove Hill2320231983
Whitehouse2020231980
Stevenson1920242007
Wedowee1320231996
Castleberry1220231967
Whitehall1220251983
Fairview1220231989
Wedgeworth1120251984
Grangeburg920241969
Jena920251983
Wallsboro820211966
Carrollton820231993
Brooksville820251986
Autaugaville820251996
Liberty720221983
Vernon720221998
Citronelle720161999
Hillsboro619931967
Latham620001966
Maytown520241967
Linden520221970
Sprague520251966
Billingsley520251991

Black Vulture Population Trend in Other States

arizonaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.