BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Vulture Population Trend in Alabama

All statesGeneralists

Black Vulture in Alabama has surged: up 173% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+173%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Vulture Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Alabama: up 173% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black Vulture Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.0 (95% range 1.6–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.0 (95% range 1.6–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.91.44.4
20263.01.54.4
20273.01.54.5
20283.01.54.5
20293.01.64.5

Black Vulture Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Black Vulture in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wheeler Dam7020232012
Epes2920241981
Grove Hill2320231983
Whitehall2120241983
Whitehouse2020231980
Stevenson1920242007
Greensport1620241987
Wedowee1320231996
Castleberry1220231967
Fairview1220231989
Swaim920231972
Grangeburg920241969
Wallsboro820211966
Carrollton820231993
Liberty720221983
Wedgeworth720241984
Vernon720221998
Citronelle720161999
St Florian620241968
Hillsboro619931967
Harrell620211972
Latham620001966
Linden520221970
Warrior Std520221969
Mclellan520241970

Black Vulture Population Trend in Other States

arizonaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.