BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Vulture Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesGeneralists

Black Vulture in Louisiana has surged: up 394% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+394%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Vulture Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Louisiana: up 394% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black Vulture Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.7 (95% range 4.3–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.3–9.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.7 (95% range 4.3–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.33.98.7
20266.44.08.8
20276.54.18.9
20286.64.29.0
20296.74.39.1

Black Vulture Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Black Vulture in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shaw7220241967
Frogmore3720241998
Ramah2620241988
Gibson2520192000
Belair2420241991
Berwick1920182000
Hackberry 21820242018
River Road1620241987
Freetown1420191967
Gonzales1420191998
Port Allen1420222000
De Quincy1120212006
Longstreet1020241967
Mayflower820241970
Evelyn820242004
Hackberry720161980
Kraemer720241997
Sabine Nwr 2720152009
Junior619911987
Roseland620221967
Glencoe620182008
Grayson620172005
Woodlawn620142014
Hargis 2620132013
Bickham520241972

Black Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckymarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.