BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black Vulture Population Trend in Missouri

All statesBirds of prey

Black Vulture in Missouri has surged: up 404% on the route-weighted index since 2004.

+404%Since 2004TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
20YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Vulture Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Missouri: up 404% on the route-weighted index since 2004.

Black Vulture Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Missouri is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Missouri is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19842030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.300.000.68
20270.310.000.69
20280.320.000.70
20290.330.000.71
20300.340.000.72

Black Vulture Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Black Vulture in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Richland1020252025
West Plains720232018
Pineville620252000
Mincy620242016
Cp Girardeau520252021
Cassville320252010
Akers320252012
Bennett320232019
Crane320122004
Sweden220232013
Rueter 2220252023
Handley219841984
Reeds220162016
Whitewater220212017
Palace220232017
Pulaski120252004
Peace Valley120082008
Graydon120252025
Barks120152015

Black Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.