BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Vulture Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

Black Vulture in Missouri has surged: up 401% on the route-weighted index since 2004.

+401%Since 2004TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Vulture Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Missouri: up 401% on the route-weighted index since 2004.

Black Vulture Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Missouri is projected to rise about 57% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+57%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.30Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Missouri is projected to rise about 57% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19842029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.270.000.64
20260.280.000.65
20270.290.000.66
20280.290.000.67
20290.300.000.68

Black Vulture Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Black Vulture in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
West Plains720232018
Mincy620242016
Cassville520242010
Bennett320232019
Crane320122004
Pulaski220232004
Sweden220232013
Pineville220232000
Cp Girardeau220222021
Rueter 2220242023
Akers220152012
Handley219841984
Reeds220162016
Palace220232017
Whitewater220212017
Peace Valley120082008
Barks120152015

Black Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.