BirdAnalyst
Species · Maryland · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Vulture Population Trend in Maryland

All statesGeneralists

Black Vulture in Maryland has surged: up 63× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

63×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Vulture Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Maryland: up 63× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black Vulture Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Maryland is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 3.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 2.0–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Maryland is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 3.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 2.0–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.01.74.2
20263.01.84.3
20273.11.84.3
20283.11.94.4
20293.22.04.4

Black Vulture Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Black Vulture in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nottingham3120242005
Snow Hill2519761966
Tall Timbers2320141972
Pleasant Val1720222004
Forest Grove1720232011
Williamsport1620241986
Theodore1420161984
Madison1020241969
Millington920241978
Indiantown920141980
Eklo820171993
Honga820241971
St. George'S Island820172015
Davidsnville820241988
Walnut720242011
Pomfret720241974
Earlton720242014
Hughesville620241971
Smithsburg420121981
Van Bibber420091993
Piney Neck420241966
Matthews420241977
Vienna420241982
Fruitland419971996
Cokesbury420241972

Black Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.