BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Vulture Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

Black Vulture in Arkansas has edged down: down 11% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-11%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Vulture Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black Vulture in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Black Vulture Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Arkansas is projected to rise about 171% by 2029 — from 0.57 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.21–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+171%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.21–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Arkansas is projected to rise about 171% by 2029 — from 0.57 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.21–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.122.8
20261.50.142.8
20271.50.172.8
20281.50.192.9
20291.50.212.9

Black Vulture Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Black Vulture in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Farwell4920182010
Eudora4619671967
Ramsey1019961969
Hatfield 21020192019
Old Milo820141993
Yellville820222010
Lockesburg820192013
Coal Hill720221989
Nance620242005
Stamps520241972
Russell520212015
Locust Bayou320231969
Massard320211969
Springhill320222010
Ashdown220231992
Magazine Mtn220182006
Saffell220181971
Fulton220221991
Avoca220142014
Marshall220152015
Havana220212011
Stephens220242010
Princeton220211998
Poyen 2220132009
Hope120241968

Black Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.