BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Vulture Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Black Vulture in Virginia has surged: up 415% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+415%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Vulture Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Virginia: up 415% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black Vulture Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Virginia is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.3–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Virginia is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.3–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.31.23.5
20262.41.23.5
20272.41.33.6
20282.51.33.6
20292.51.33.7

Black Vulture Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Black Vulture in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Taylorstown10720101969
Brodnax6620241973
Cornland2620141983
Port Royal2120191977
Hall1720231978
Star Tannery1320232011
Moran1020242001
Blacksburg1020191993
Carters Brdg 2920242015
Cape Charles720181997
Backbay719701966
White Stone620241967
Saltville620241974
Newsoms620241968
Finchley620212000
Gladys620241995
Jerome520231978
Ringgold520221995
Edinburg420241976
Rural Retrt420241995
Church Road420241980
Surry420211981
Quinby420241982
Hebron420121981
Chincoteag W320241998

Black Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.