BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black Vulture Population Trend in Virginia

All statesBirds of prey

Black Vulture in Virginia has surged: up 327% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+327%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Vulture Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Virginia: up 327% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black Vulture Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Virginia is projected to rise about 82% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.3–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+82%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Virginia is projected to rise about 82% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.3–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.31.13.5
20272.41.23.5
20282.41.23.6
20292.41.33.6
20302.51.33.6

Black Vulture Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Black Vulture in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Taylorstown10720101969
Cornland2620141983
Ringgold1720251995
Star Tannery1320232011
Blacksburg1020191993
Cape Charles720181997
Backbay719701966
White Stone620241967
Quinby620251982
Saltville620241974
Newsoms620241968
Finchley620212000
Port Royal520251977
Rural Retrt520251995
Fincastle520251968
Edinburg420241976
Surry420211981
Brodnax420251973
Hebron420121981
Chincoteag W320241998
Tryme320191975
Covington320192019
Amherst320241970
Carters Brdg320141966
Sharps320221968

Black Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.