BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Vulture Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesGeneralists

Black Vulture in New Jersey has surged: up 974% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

+974%Since 1991TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Vulture Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in New Jersey: up 974% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

Black Vulture Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in New Jersey is projected to rise about 69% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.84–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+69%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.84–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in New Jersey is projected to rise about 69% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.84–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.672.4
20261.60.712.4
20271.60.762.4
20281.60.802.5
20291.70.842.5

Black Vulture Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Black Vulture in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Toms River720242016
Sandbrook520241995
Six Points420242013
Croton419991994
Cape May Ch420132001
Keyport320162000
Pedricktown 2320222013
Pedricktown320122008
Croton 2320222015
Albion220222011
Gillette220232008
Roosevelt220222005
Woodbury Hgt120231990
Greenwich120241991
New Bedford120162011
Hope119921991
Midvale120072004
Kemah Lake120242016
Bloomsbury120241982
High Point120231993
Dover120222018
Pottersville120242012
Cranbury120222014
Friendship120212021
Bennett Mill 2120242021

Black Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.