BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black Vulture Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesBirds of prey

Black Vulture in Kentucky has surged: up 565% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+565%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Vulture Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Kentucky: up 565% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black Vulture Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Kentucky is projected to rise about 100% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.0–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Kentucky is projected to rise about 100% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.0–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.90.902.8
20271.90.942.9
20281.90.972.9
20292.01.02.9
20302.01.03.0

Black Vulture Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Black Vulture in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Keysburg2320241971
Glencoe1120181986
Lebanon Junction920242001
Lovelacevile720221971
Canton720251972
Buena Vista620171971
Sunnybrook520191992
Eastview520251970
Dixie520192014
Cedar Grove420251999
Levee 2420192019
Monticello320112011
Hustonville320252002
Merrimac320221992
Demunbruns320191966
Cumberlnd Gp220021998
Shiloh220252000
Iron Bridge219981998
Mckee220242024
Drakesboro219731971
Joy220231982
Goshen219931981
Hodgenville 2220182012
Sulphur Lick120232009
Hegira120221997

Black Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianalouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.