BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Vulture Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Black Vulture in Arizona has increased: up 46% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+46%Since 1977
11Routes In State
32Years

Notable Black Vulture Trends in Arizona

No notable trend signals for Black Vulture in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Black Vulture Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Arizona is projected to rise about 329% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+329%Change by 2029
0.37Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.495% range
±52.2%Backtest error
19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.380.001.4
20260.370.001.4
20270.370.001.4
20280.370.001.4
20290.370.001.4

Black Vulture Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Black Vulture in Arizona.
Casa Grande8120222011
Patagonia620231995
Palo Verde 2420232017
Lukeville419791975
Red Rock320142000
Red Rock 2320242015
Organ Pipe220231990
Amado120231993
Ajo120011999
Cactus Forest120231997
Peña Blanca120001997

Black Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.