BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Vulture Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

Black Vulture in Florida has surged: up 132% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+132%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
121Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Vulture Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Florida: up 132% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black Vulture Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Florida is projected to rise about 63% by 2029 — from 9.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 11–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+63%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Florida is projected to rise about 63% by 2029 — from 9.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 11–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025159.720
2026159.920
2027151020
2028161021
2029161121

Black Vulture Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Black Vulture in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wildernes Pk26720141992
Sandy9320151987
Holey Land7120241987
Pennywash Cr6020241987
Winter Gardn5520191988
Scottsmoor5220241968
Indiantown 24720242018
Tamiami4219741966
Andytown4019981974
Mabel 23320192012
Myakka Head 23220212012
Ft Lonesome3020241970
Palmdale2620231987
Indiantown2520171966
Ridge Harbor2320241992
Myakka Head2220111966
Sunniland Gr2220211966
Deanville2220191987
Mt. Olive2120242002
Lake Buffum1920241987
Corbett1920241993
Belmont1820241966
Pinecrest1820241967
Alva1820171988
Weaver Stn1820191987

Black Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.