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Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black Vulture Population Trend in Florida

All statesBirds of prey

Black Vulture in Florida has surged: up 92% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+92%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
121Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Vulture Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Florida: up 92% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black Vulture Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Florida is projected to rise about 160% by 2030 — from 5.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 9.7–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+160%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.7–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Florida is projected to rise about 160% by 2030 — from 5.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 9.7–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026148.920
2027159.120
2028159.320
2029159.521
2030159.721

Black Vulture Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Black Vulture in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wildernes Pk26720141992
Sandy9320151987
Holey Land7020251987
Pennywash Cr6020241987
Winter Gardn5520191988
Tamiami4219741966
Andytown4019981974
Myakka Head 23220212012
Ft Lonesome3020241970
Palmdale2620231987
Corbett2620251993
Indiantown2520171966
Pinecrest2320251967
Myakka Head2220111966
Sunniland Gr2220211966
Deanville2220191987
Indiantown 22220252018
Lake Buffum1920241987
Alva1820171988
Weaver Stn1820191987
Flamingo1820251983
Scottsmoor1720251968
Gardner1719991987
Broad Branch1620251969
Belmore1520241966

Black Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.