BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Vulture Population Trend in Ohio

All statesGeneralists

Black Vulture in Ohio has surged: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1979.

14×Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Vulture Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Ohio: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Black Vulture Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Ohio is projected to fall about 57% by 2029 — from 0.82 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.05–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-57%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Ohio is projected to fall about 57% by 2029 — from 0.82 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.05–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.320.010.63
20260.330.020.63
20270.340.030.64
20280.340.040.65
20290.350.050.66

Black Vulture Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Black Vulture in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mohican S.F.920222014
Cuba920242006
Bolins Mills620242021
Omega520241990
Pittsfield420242024
Enon320242016
Dresden320191971
Hebron220162009
Pomeroy220212019
Valley City220242024
Stonecreek120232012
Birmingham120162016
Harveysburg 2120232023
Marion120222022
Lattasburg120172017
Fulton120242021
Meadowbrook119791966
Smithfield120122012
Darrtown120212021
Ray120181998
Ash Ridge120171992
Rome120241971

Black Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaoklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.