BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black Vulture Population Trend in Ohio

All statesBirds of prey

Black Vulture in Ohio has surged: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1979.

15×Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Vulture Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black Vulture in Ohio. See the full index history below.

Black Vulture Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.36 (95% range 0.06–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.6795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.36 (95% range 0.06–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.330.030.63
20270.340.040.64
20280.350.050.65
20290.360.060.66
20300.360.060.67

Black Vulture Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Black Vulture in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mohican S.F.920222014
Harveysburg 2920252023
Cuba920242006
Bolins Mills620242021
Omega520241990
Pittsfield420242024
Enon320242016
Dresden220251971
Hebron220162009
Pomeroy220212019
Valley City220242024
Stonecreek120232012
Birmingham120162016
Marion120222022
Lattasburg120172017
Fulton120242021
Meadowbrook119791966
Smithfield120122012
Darrtown120212021
Ray120181998
Ash Ridge120171992
Rome120251971

Black Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaoklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.