BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black Vulture Population Trend in Texas

All statesBirds of prey

Black Vulture in Texas has surged: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

11×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
175Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Vulture Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Texas: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black Vulture Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 8.6 (95% range 7.2–9.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.2–9.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 8.6 (95% range 7.2–9.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.06.69.3
20278.16.89.5
20288.36.99.6
20298.47.19.8
20308.67.29.9

Black Vulture Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Black Vulture in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Paige8420252015
Mcfaddin7820162006
Manor7420242012
Goliad Prairie7220162004
Encinal7020091974
Three Rivers6620251995
Oakwood5319951967
Millett 25220242013
Moon Lake 25220252012
Carlos4620251993
Chinquapin4520251995
Schroeder4219971967
Massey Lake4120251970
Sadler4120251975
Bayside 33820252005
Rock Island3720251970
Indianola3320241984
Hinkles Fer3220251968
Bonner3220251994
Whit Mtn.3220191994
Montell2920251995
Duran2919991995
Lone Oak2820221971
Winnie2720251969
Katy2720251984

Black Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.