BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Vulture Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Black Vulture in Texas has surged: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

11×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
172Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Vulture Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Texas: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black Vulture Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.4 (95% range 7.0–9.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.0–9.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.4 (95% range 7.0–9.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.86.49.2
20268.06.69.3
20278.16.79.5
20288.26.99.6
20298.47.09.8

Black Vulture Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Black Vulture in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Paige10220242015
Mcfaddin7820162006
Manor7420242012
Goliad Prairie7220162004
Encinal7020091974
Moon Lake 26120242012
Oakwood5319951967
Millett 25220242013
Bayside 35220242005
Schroeder4219971967
Rock Island4220241970
Oak Grove 24220242003
Indianola3320241984
Adamsville3320241976
Whit Mtn.3220191994
Lockhart3120241967
Selden3120241974
Ola2920241973
Duran2919991995
Lone Oak2820221971
Encinal 22520242011
Utopia2420241969
Dilley2420242018
New Waverly2320241973
Dallas2220242012

Black Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.