BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black Vulture Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesBirds of prey

Black Vulture in Oklahoma has surged: up 585% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+585%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Vulture Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Oklahoma: up 585% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Black Vulture Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.60–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.60–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.60–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.511.7
20271.10.531.7
20281.10.561.7
20291.20.581.7
20301.20.601.8

Black Vulture Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Black Vulture in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Goodwater1720212000
Mill Creek1420251969
Wainwright1320131997
Tatums1220191992
Duncan1020252008
Canadian720171979
Colcord620222000
Baron520231998
Ardmore420251977
Blanco320031967
Phillips320251982
Indianola320251991
Holdenville320251990
Big Cedar219781978
Noble220242018
Welch220162016
Bethel220231995
Matoy220251992
Heyburn220252022
Keetonville220222014
Pushmataha220232001
Mcalester119851970
Ouachita Nf120181991
Randlett120252025
Mt. Herman120082002

Black Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.