BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Vulture Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesGeneralists

Black Vulture in Oklahoma has surged: up 535% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+535%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Vulture Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Oklahoma: up 535% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Black Vulture Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 130% by 2029 — from 0.48 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.55–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+130%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.55–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 130% by 2029 — from 0.48 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.55–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.461.6
20261.00.481.6
20271.10.501.6
20281.10.531.6
20291.10.551.7

Black Vulture Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Black Vulture in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mill Creek2520181969
Goodwater1720212000
Wainwright1320131997
Tatums1220191992
Canadian720171979
Colcord620222000
Baron520231998
Indianola520241991
Holdenville420241990
Blanco320031967
Ardmore320091977
Big Cedar219781978
Noble220242018
Welch220162016
Bethel220231995
Sandbluff219941992
Heyburn220242022
Keetonville220222014
Pushmataha220232001
Mcalester119851970
Phillips120081982
Ouachita Nf120181991
Mt. Herman120082002
Hee Mountain120222004
Beggs120232009

Black Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.