BirdAnalyst
Species · Georgia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Vulture Population Trend in Georgia

All statesGeneralists

Black Vulture in Georgia has surged: up 170% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+170%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Vulture Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Georgia: up 170% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black Vulture Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Georgia is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 3.4–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–8.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Georgia is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 3.4–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.53.07.9
20265.53.18.0
20275.63.28.1
20285.73.38.2
20295.83.48.2

Black Vulture Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Black Vulture in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stoney Point4520072007
Newton4320241975
Shiloh3720242015
Pineora 23320242024
Vidalia2720241995
Folkston2320221994
Doles2020191992
Hebron1920222006
Lincolnton1820171967
Hollonville1719971976
Irwinton1520242016
Grovetown1420211976
Athens1320231967
Sharon 21320242023
Woodbine1220242011
Union1220232011
Good Hope1220242007
Colonels Island1120232005
White Hill1120232021
Lakeview1020222006
Candler1020242009
Maxeys920241967
Tarver820241991
Deepstep720231975
Riceboro720231996

Black Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.