BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Vulture Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesGeneralists

Black Vulture in Mississippi has increased: up 48% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+48%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Vulture Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black Vulture in Mississippi. See the full index history below.

Black Vulture Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Mississippi is projected to rise about 103% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 1.1–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+103%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Mississippi is projected to rise about 103% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 1.1–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.50.996.0
20263.51.06.1
20273.61.16.1
20283.61.16.1
20293.61.16.2

Black Vulture Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Black Vulture in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt Carmel2820161991
Lake Mary2219771974
Poplarville2019781972
Monticello1820082007
Leaf River1620132008
Weir1620232008
Panther Swamp Nwr1420182017
Eagle Lake1220242012
Olive Branch 21220222016
Trace Madison1120162015
Fort Adams1120221975
Fayette920081966
Cybur920191972
Trace Central920212007
Grenada Lake820182016
Embry720241995
Lake Como620211983
Tchula 3620232017
Trace Lorman620192016
Trace Attala620172016
Walthall519791970
Holly Springs520242009
Okatibbee L.520051996
Delta N.F.520082004
Oak Ridge Vick520212016

Black Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.