BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Vulture Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Black Vulture in West Virginia has surged: up 112% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+112%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Vulture Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in West Virginia: up 112% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Black Vulture Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in West Virginia is projected to rise about 67% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.05–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+67%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.32Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.5895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in West Virginia is projected to rise about 67% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.05–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.290.030.56
20260.300.030.57
20270.300.040.57
20280.310.040.58
20290.320.050.58

Black Vulture Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Black Vulture in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Smoot720191999
Clear Creek319981995
Pt Pleasant320232016
Bramwell220152015
Hanover220212021
Spencer220232013
Fayetteville219951995
Sugar Grove220241975
Martinsburg220241967
Hix120231997
Pedro120211994
Ghent120242024
Arlee119681968
Meadland120242024
Nicut120152015
Lost River120212021
Shanghai120211999
Cedarville120232010
Mo Of Seneca120171991
Rockport120242024
Washburn120222022
Josephs Mill120222021
Yellow Spg120231972
Glade Run 2120072007

Black Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.