BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Vulture Population Trend in Indiana

All statesGeneralists

Black Vulture in Indiana has surged: up 346% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

+346%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Vulture Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Indiana: up 346% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Black Vulture Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Indiana is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 0.36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.03–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.5695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Indiana is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 0.36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.03–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.270.010.54
20260.280.010.54
20270.280.020.55
20280.290.030.55
20290.290.030.56

Black Vulture Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Black Vulture in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Corydon1020211974
Pimento919971997
Witts Station520242005
Azalia420222018
Milroy419861986
Scottsburg420241991
Newberry420192019
Georgia420242006
New Phila320192011
Sexton220242008
Brookville220242013
Cross Plains220132002
Shelbyville120242024
Indian Spgs120231991
Celestine120242017
Clear Spring120151997
Vevay120231991
Wallace120242024
Cyprss120112011

Black Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoiskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.