BirdAnalyst
Species · Illinois · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black Vulture Population Trend in Illinois

All statesBirds of prey

Black Vulture in Illinois has surged: up 166% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+166%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Vulture Trends in IllinoisNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Illinois: up 165% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Black Vulture Population Forecast in Illinois

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Illinois is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.26 (95% range 0.10–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Illinois is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.26 (95% range 0.10–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.240.080.40
20270.240.090.40
20280.250.090.41
20290.250.100.41
20300.260.100.41

Black Vulture Survey Routes in Illinois

Routes recording Black Vulture in Illinois.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beaverdam Lk720231993
Belknap620251975
Pulaski520251986
Karnak420252003
Sandusky320181999
Columbia220252024
Royalton120232023
Brownville120242024
Cave In Rock120241998
Beaucoup120252025
Dudleyville120212021
Bremen120242013
Delwood120251982

Black Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.