BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black Vulture Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesBirds of prey

Black Vulture in South Carolina has surged: up 320% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+320%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Vulture Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in South Carolina: up 320% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black Vulture Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in South Carolina is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 1.5–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–7.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in South Carolina is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 1.5–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.01.26.7
20274.01.36.8
20284.11.36.8
20294.21.46.9
20304.21.57.0

Black Vulture Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Black Vulture in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hardeeville2120251967
Blacksburg1820131999
Pinewood1820172000
Rome1320231990
Walterboro1220251970
Wagener1020251967
Olar820191998
Coward720252005
Ward720252025
New Ellenton620222018
Campobello620252015
Ridgeway620132010
Salem620232014
Nixville620251999
Holly Hill520221972
New Holland520241970
Greenwood520251999
Boykin Ml Pd419671966
Red Bluff420251997
Barton Creek320221975
Bennettsville320172000
Dale320251998
Adams Run320251989
Jamestown220151968
Foreston220211971

Black Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.