BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eurasian Collared-Dove Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGeneralists

Eurasian Collared-Dove in Tennessee has surged: up 313% on the route-weighted index since 2002.

+313%Since 2002TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eurasian Collared-Dove Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eurasian Collared-Dove has surged in Tennessee: up 313% on the route-weighted index since 2002.

Eurasian Collared-Dove Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Tennessee is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 0.82 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.29–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.70Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.29–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Tennessee is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 0.82 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.29–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19992029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.630.211.0
20260.650.231.1
20270.670.251.1
20280.680.271.1
20290.700.291.1

Eurasian Collared-Dove Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Eurasian Collared-Dove in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Climer820042002
Tibbs520242003
Union Hill520242019
Glen520242009
Humboldt420222005
Belotes Bend420181999
Tullahoma420052003
Pawpaw 2420232013
Brownsville320222014
Tiptonville220162007
Moscow220242003
Silerton220152005
Trenton220192002
Petersburg220122005
Peytonsville220002000
Bradyville220191999
Pawpaw120092002
Whiteville120122012
Jones Gap120122012
Mansfield120222006
Collinwood120242007
Campbellsville120192010
White House120112011
Jasper120152015
Allens Brdge120222005

Eurasian Collared-Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradofloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.