BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eurasian Collared-Dove Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGeneralists

Eurasian Collared-Dove in Kentucky has surged: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 2002.

16×Since 2002TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
25YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eurasian Collared-Dove Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eurasian Collared-Dove has surged in Kentucky: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 2002.

Eurasian Collared-Dove Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.8 (95% range 1.3–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.8 (95% range 1.3–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.20002030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.61.12.1
20271.71.12.2
20281.71.22.2
20291.81.32.3
20301.81.32.3

Eurasian Collared-Dove Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Eurasian Collared-Dove in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pleasurevill1720252006
Keysburg1020252000
Sulphur Lick520242019
Sunnybrook520222007
Plum520242014
Shiloh420232010
Eastview320252021
Lebanon Junction320252014
Hustonville220252009
Demunbruns220212003
Lovelacevile120222005
Canton120252010
Cedar Grove120252010
Riverqueen120232009
Kings Mtn120092009
Merrimac120142014
Johnsonville120212009
Dixie120152010
Joy120182018
Buena Vista120172007
Bardwell 2120172006

Eurasian Collared-Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradofloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.