BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eurasian Collared-Dove Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Eurasian Collared-Dove in North Carolina has surged: up 284% on the route-weighted index since 2008.

+284%Since 2008TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eurasian Collared-Dove Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eurasian Collared-Dove has surged in North Carolina: up 284% on the route-weighted index since 2008.

Eurasian Collared-Dove Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in North Carolina is projected to rise about 148% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.10–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+148%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±76%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in North Carolina is projected to rise about 148% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.10–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.20002029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.080.30
20260.190.080.31
20270.200.090.31
20280.210.100.32
20290.210.100.33

Eurasian Collared-Dove Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Eurasian Collared-Dove in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wards Corner520232008
Merrimon420232008
Ostwalt420242018
Myrtle Grove220242000
Hamlet220152015
Oakboro220212008
Dudley220142014
Broad Creek120152015
Rowland120122012
Gupton120072007
Bethel120232023
Mooresville 2120222019
Waco120122011
Hulls Xroads120152014
Flay120222017
Call120192012

Eurasian Collared-Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradofloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.