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Species · California · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eurasian Collared-Dove Population Trend in California

All statesGeneralists

Eurasian Collared-Dove in California has surged: up 94× on the route-weighted index since 2006.

94×Since 2006TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
151Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eurasian Collared-Dove Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eurasian Collared-Dove has surged in California: up 94× on the route-weighted index since 2006.

Eurasian Collared-Dove Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in California is projected to rise about 57% by 2030 — from 9.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 12–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+57%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in California is projected to rise about 57% by 2030 — from 9.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 12–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.20042030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026129.515
2027131016
2028131116
2029141117
2030151217

Eurasian Collared-Dove Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Eurasian Collared-Dove in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crescent Cty5720252017
Westley5320252007
Orland5220222009
Dorris5120192009
Imperial Dam4420102006
Moreno4120252017
Hollister 24020242012
Hughson3920252008
Tres Pinos 23920112007
Hollister3820112007
Yreka3620192008
Collegeville 23620232023
Yolla Bolly3420252010
Tracy 23320242010
Coalinga3020222014
Iron Gate3020192010
Sisquoc2920142012
Cohasset2720252010
Adelaida2720252015
Parkfield2620252013
Bakersfield2620232015
Alamo River2620182017
Mark West2620252007
Red Bluff2420252010
Riovista2420252012

Eurasian Collared-Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascoloradofloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.