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Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eurasian Collared-Dove Population Trend in California

All statesGeneralists

Eurasian Collared-Dove in California has surged: up 95× on the route-weighted index since 2006.

95×Since 2006TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
148Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
20YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eurasian Collared-Dove Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eurasian Collared-Dove has surged in California: up 95× on the route-weighted index since 2006.

Eurasian Collared-Dove Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in California is projected to rise about 59% by 2029 — from 9.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 12–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+59%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in California is projected to rise about 59% by 2029 — from 9.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 12–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.20042029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025129.715
2026131016
2027141116
2028141217
2029151217

Eurasian Collared-Dove Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Eurasian Collared-Dove in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Orland5220222009
Dorris5120192009
Crescent Cty4720242017
Imperial Dam4420102006
Westley4220242007
Hollister 24020242012
Tres Pinos 23920112007
Hollister3820112007
Hughson3720242008
Yreka3620192008
Collegeville 23620232023
Tracy 23320242010
Cohasset3220242010
Moreno3020242017
Coalinga3020222014
Greenfield3020242012
Ora Loma3020242023
Iron Gate3020192010
Parkfield2920242013
Sisquoc2920142012
Red Bluff2820242010
Oak Grove2820242010
Bakersfield2620232015
Alamo River2620182017
Jacumba2620242012

Eurasian Collared-Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascoloradofloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.