BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eurasian Collared-Dove Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Eurasian Collared-Dove in North Dakota has surged: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 2007.

16×Since 2007TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eurasian Collared-Dove Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eurasian Collared-Dove has surged in North Dakota: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 2007.

Eurasian Collared-Dove Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in North Dakota is projected to rise about 64% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.5–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+64%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in North Dakota is projected to rise about 64% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.5–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.20052029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.81.12.4
20261.91.22.5
20272.01.32.6
20282.11.42.7
20292.21.52.8

Eurasian Collared-Dove Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Eurasian Collared-Dove in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Walcott820232006
Dickinson720242013
Carpio520232023
Montpelier520242015
Zap420242013
Golva420222013
Solen420242010
Edgeley320242021
Tobacco320192019
Bentley320242009
Forman220242021
Danzig220122012
Horsehead Lk220222017
Dunn Center220232013
Bowman220242005
Danzig 2220242019
Carson120242019
Lake George120132013
Cooperstown120222022
Wimbledon120242023
Nash120102010
Rolla120242017
Regan120212021
Loraine120152015
Gorham120182018

Eurasian Collared-Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradofloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.