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Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eurasian Collared-Dove Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Eurasian Collared-Dove in Arizona has surged: up 702% on the route-weighted index since 2005.

+702%Since 2005TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eurasian Collared-Dove Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eurasian Collared-Dove has surged in Arizona: up 702% on the route-weighted index since 2005.

Eurasian Collared-Dove Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Arizona is projected to rise about 158% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.0 (95% range 3.4–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±172.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+158%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±172.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Arizona is projected to rise about 158% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.0 (95% range 3.4–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±172.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.20032030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.22.614
20278.42.814
20288.63.014
20298.83.214
20309.03.415

Eurasian Collared-Dove Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Eurasian Collared-Dove in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hope4120092009
Cactus Forest3520252006
Skull Valley2620242005
Hunt1920182003
Hope 21820192014
Skull Valley 21720252025
Red Rock 21720242015
Palo Verde 21520252014
Palo Verde1520132004
New River1420162013
Page1320192007
Amado1320252007
Seligman1220252005
Castle Butte1020252006
Peach Spring1020252005
Patagonia920252006
Araby920232004
Laguna820232005
Organ Pipe720232016
Cibola Lake720242011
Ajo 2720222009
Clay Spring520252009
Oatman420252008
Wikieup420192012
Dateland420242005

Eurasian Collared-Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradofloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.