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Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eurasian Collared-Dove Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Eurasian Collared-Dove in Arizona has surged: up 865% on the route-weighted index since 2005.

+865%Since 2005TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eurasian Collared-Dove Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eurasian Collared-Dove has surged in Arizona: up 865% on the route-weighted index since 2005.

Eurasian Collared-Dove Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Arizona is projected to rise about 100% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 4.7–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±143.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.7–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±143.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Arizona is projected to rise about 100% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 4.7–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±143.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.20032029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.03.714
20269.23.914
20279.54.215
20289.74.515
2029104.715

Eurasian Collared-Dove Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Eurasian Collared-Dove in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hope4120092009
Skull Valley2620242005
Cactus Forest2420242006
Oatman2320242008
Hunt1920182003
Hope 21820192014
Palo Verde 21720242014
Red Rock 21720242015
Palo Verde1520132004
Peach Spring1520242005
New River1420162013
Page1320192007
Mcneal1020242003
Araby920232004
Laguna820232005
Pomerene820242006
Seligman820242005
Organ Pipe720232016
Patagonia720242006
Cibola Lake720242011
Ajo 2720222009
Amado620232007
Clay Spring620242009
Prescott520212005
Wikieup420192012

Eurasian Collared-Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradofloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.