BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eurasian Collared-Dove Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

Eurasian Collared-Dove in Arkansas has surged: up 498% on the route-weighted index since 2001.

+498%Since 2001TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
25YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eurasian Collared-Dove Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eurasian Collared-Dove has surged in Arkansas: up 498% on the route-weighted index since 2001.

Eurasian Collared-Dove Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Arkansas is projected to rise about 183% by 2029 — from 0.79 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.84–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±222.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+183%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.84–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±222.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Arkansas is projected to rise about 183% by 2029 — from 0.79 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.84–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±222.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19992029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.00.653.4
20262.10.703.5
20272.10.753.5
20282.20.803.6
20292.20.843.6

Eurasian Collared-Dove Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Eurasian Collared-Dove in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Farwell2320182017
Kelso1120162010
Augusta 21020162002
Saffell920192002
Coal Hill620232005
Old Milo520092003
Massard520222001
Ravenden Springs520152011
Dell520242010
Havana520192010
Maynard420242009
Centerton320112010
Russell320212010
England320242010
Ulm320242004
Hickory Ridge220222016
Gillett220242010
Rudy220232013
Eudora120242001
Locust Bayou120232006
Stamps120232005
Hope120232006
Hughes120232003
Crowley'S Ridge120162016
South Bend120102005

Eurasian Collared-Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradofloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.