BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eurasian Collared-Dove Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Eurasian Collared-Dove in New Mexico has surged: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 2004.

12×Since 2004TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eurasian Collared-Dove Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eurasian Collared-Dove has surged in New Mexico: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 2004.

Eurasian Collared-Dove Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in New Mexico is projected to rise about 46% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 3.3–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+46%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.3–7.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in New Mexico is projected to rise about 46% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 3.3–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.20022030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.82.76.9
20275.02.87.1
20285.13.07.2
20295.23.17.3
20305.43.37.5

Eurasian Collared-Dove Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Eurasian Collared-Dove in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hobbs1820252003
Lakewood1620212007
Roswell1520252006
Clovis1520242004
Bitter Lake1520252005
Laborcita 21420252022
Laborcita1420192003
La Plata1420132007
Columbus1420252002
Rodeo1320252004
La Plata 21320162014
Rosebud1120252008
Pecos820172006
Cooley Lake720252002
Maxwell720252006
Newcomb720212021
Mcgaffey620252009
Horse Mtn520232009
Nageesi420252013
Torreon420252010
Floyd420252004
Gage420252006
Sanostee420252023
Cebolla320232004
Salt Lake 2320252005

Eurasian Collared-Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradofloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.