BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eurasian Collared-Dove Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Eurasian Collared-Dove in Texas has surged: up 203× on the route-weighted index since 1998.

203×Since 1998TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
215Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eurasian Collared-Dove Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eurasian Collared-Dove has surged in Texas: up 203× on the route-weighted index since 1998.

Eurasian Collared-Dove Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Texas is projected to rise about 75% by 2029 — from 5.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.0 (95% range 6.0–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+75%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.0–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±89.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Texas is projected to rise about 75% by 2029 — from 5.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.0 (95% range 6.0–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19962029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.94.911
20268.25.111
20278.55.412
20288.75.712
20299.06.012

Eurasian Collared-Dove Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Eurasian Collared-Dove in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pecos7020172017
Mentone4220152004
Lamesa3820242002
Booker2820242010
Dallas2720192012
Henrietta2520222005
Progreso2320112002
Encinal2120102000
Comstock2120232001
George West1920242001
Hawley1820242007
Gruver1720242007
Thornton 21620102009
Charlie1620242004
Randado1520242005
Dalhart1520242006
Hondo1420242003
Rotan1420242015
Canutillo1420242006
Indianola1320242002
Cottonwood1320242007
Texline1320242003
Panhandle1320242007
Olney1220241997
Waka1220242006

Eurasian Collared-Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradofloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.