BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-winged Dove Population Analysis

ColumbidaeGeneralistsZenaida asiatica

White-winged Dove has surged: up 138% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+138%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
471RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the White-winged Dove

The White-winged Dove (Zenaida asiatica) is a North American member of the Pigeons & Doves (Columbidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the generalists.

Size
6–14.5 in long (15–37 cm) — a plump-bodied bird (typical for the family)
Habitat
A broad range of open and wooded habitats, often near people.
Diet
An opportunistic mix of insects, seeds, fruit and scraps.
Range
Recorded on 471 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 17 states, most concentrated in the Chihuahuan Desert.
Family
Columbidae · Generalists

Notable White-winged Dove TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-winged Dove has surged in surveyed states: up 138% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

White-winged Dove Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-winged Dove is projected to rise about 44% by 2030 — from 0.81 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.85–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+44%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.85–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-winged Dove is projected to rise about 44% by 2030 — from 0.81 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.85–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.801.4
20271.10.811.4
20281.10.821.5
20291.20.841.5
20301.20.851.5

Where the White-winged Dove Is Detected

BBS routes recording White-winged Dove, sized by most recent count.

White-winged Dove Population Trend by State

White-winged Dove population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama22×200913
Arizona-28%197059
Arkansasinsufficient datan/a3
California+80%197020
Coloradoinsufficient datan/a8
Florida12×197953
Georgiainsufficient datan/a1
Illinoisinsufficient datan/a2
Kansas+339%201111
Louisiana+788%200830
Mississippiinsufficient datan/a2
Nebraskainsufficient datan/a3
Nevadainsufficient datan/a2
New Mexico+283%198151
Oklahoma+12%201013
Texas+537%1969197
Utahinsufficient datan/a3

White-winged Dove Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

White-winged Dove population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau-96%199325
Shortgrass Prairie28×199942
Central Mixed Grass Prairie+105%200430
Edwards Plateau30×197819
Oaks and Prairies58×197749
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas12×200823
Mississippi Alluvial Valley19×200813
Southeastern Coastal Plain17×200128
Peninsular Florida+890%197942
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts-29%197051
Sierra Madre Occidental-22%197026
Chihuahuan Desert14×196954
Tamaulipan Brushlands+294%196928
Gulf Coastal Prairie-43%197131

White-winged Dove Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 138% since 1969.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.