BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-winged Dove In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

White-winged Dove in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 42× on the route-weighted index since 1977.

42×Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-winged Dove has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 42× on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-winged Dove in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 4.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 2.1–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–5.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-winged Dove in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 4.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 2.1–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.51.75.2
20263.61.85.3
20273.61.95.4
20283.72.05.5
20293.82.15.5

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording White-winged Dove in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Three RiversTEXAS942024
Lone OakTEXAS682019
RhomeTEXAS352024
CreedmoreTEXAS322011
OsageTEXAS262021
BriteTEXAS162024
WeatherfordTEXAS122024
DallasTEXAS112024
Whit Mtn.TEXAS112019
ComancheTEXAS92024
HobsonTEXAS72024
GrafordTEXAS72019
Blue RidgeTEXAS52024
BurtonTEXAS52019
Arenosa CrkTEXAS42019
KosseTEXAS42023
SadlerTEXAS42023
HenriettaTEXAS42022
Thornton 3TEXAS42024
CottonwoodTEXAS32024
DikeTEXAS32024
HearneTEXAS32022
CayugaTEXAS32023
Mount ZionTEXAS32016
MegargelTEXAS32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.