BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-winged Dove Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

White-winged Dove in Arizona has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-28%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-winged Dove Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for White-winged Dove in Arizona. See the full index history below.

White-winged Dove Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, White-winged Dove in Arizona is projected to rise about 110% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 12–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+110%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-winged Dove in Arizona is projected to rise about 110% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 12–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026271243
2027271243
2028271243
2029271243
2030271243

White-winged Dove Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording White-winged Dove in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lukeville20619811975
Organ Pipe15920231990
Bates Well15420231995
Laguna13820231968
Palo Verde10220131992
Cabeza Priet10220251993
Dragoon9220091993
Red Rock 27220242015
Mormon Lake6919691969
Hope6020091990
Ajo 25820222009
Ajo5620081968
Cibola Lake5020241993
Araby4920231992
Red Rock4920141992
Pomerene4220251968
Palo Verde 23920252014
Florence3819881968
Amado3620251993
Oatman3520251988
Patagonia3520251968
Wickenburg3120232017
Peña Blanca2920251975
Alamo Res.2720251992
Portal2320251975

White-winged Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradofloridageorgiaillinoiskansaslouisianamississippinebraskanevadanew-mexicooklahomatexasutah

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.