BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-winged Dove Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

White-winged Dove in New Mexico has surged: up 372% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

+372%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-winged Dove Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-winged Dove has surged in New Mexico: up 372% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

White-winged Dove Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, White-winged Dove in New Mexico is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.9–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-winged Dove in New Mexico is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.9–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.81.73.9
20262.91.84.0
20272.91.84.0
20283.01.94.1
20293.11.94.2

White-winged Dove Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording White-winged Dove in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Laborcita3520191992
Columbus3420241992
La Cienega2220221976
Rodeo1920241981
Laborcita 21620242022
Jornada1120241987
Pinon820241994
Emory Pass720241993
Gage620241983
Sunshine Wll520242009
Magdalena420241998
Red Rock420241992
Carrizozo320241998
Capitan Mtn.320172006
Hatchet Peak320242002
Logan320222018
Cooley Lake220241994
Floyd220242013
Vallecitos220102010
Rosebud220032003
Pastura220192009
Bitter Lake220232006
San Simon120192011
Cebolla120122008
Ojo Sarco120152015

White-winged Dove Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.