BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-winged Dove Population Trend in California

All statesGeneralists

White-winged Dove in California has surged: up 105% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+105%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-winged Dove Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-winged Dove has surged in California: up 105% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

White-winged Dove Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, White-winged Dove in California is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 0.63 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.87Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-winged Dove in California is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 0.63 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.860.002.4
20260.860.002.4
20270.860.002.4
20280.860.002.4
20290.870.002.4

White-winged Dove Survey Routes in California

Routes recording White-winged Dove in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Imperial Dam8820101973
Glamis7320181968
Palo Verde3420241973
Brawley2620121973
Blythe2420031973
Coachella Cn2320131973
Parker Dam1920071973
Anza Borrego1320241968
Niland1220241981
Alamo River420181973
Joshua Tree320001970
Cima219891989
Cottonwood220011995
Anza 2120072007
Iron Mtns120182018
Cholla Gard.120092009
Oak Grove120112011
Havasu Lake119781973

White-winged Dove Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.