BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-winged Dove In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsGeneralists

White-winged Dove in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-29%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for White-winged Dove in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

White-winged Dove In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-winged Dove in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 211% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 34 (95% range 17–51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+211%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
17–5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-winged Dove in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 211% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 34 (95% range 17–51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026331650
2027331650
2028341651
2029341751
2030341751

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording White-winged Dove in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LukevilleARIZONA2061981
Organ PipeARIZONA1592023
Bates WellARIZONA1542023
LagunaARIZONA1382023
Palo VerdeARIZONA1022013
Cabeza PrietARIZONA1022025
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA882010
GlamisCALIFORNIA732018
Red Rock 2ARIZONA722024
HopeARIZONA602009
Ajo 2ARIZONA582022
AjoARIZONA562008
Cibola LakeARIZONA502024
ArabyARIZONA492023
Red RockARIZONA492014
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA392025
FlorenceARIZONA381988
OatmanARIZONA352025
WickenburgARIZONA312023
Alamo Res.ARIZONA272025
BrawleyCALIFORNIA262012
BlytheCALIFORNIA242003
Coachella CnCALIFORNIA232013
DatelandARIZONA212025
Anza BorregoCALIFORNIA212025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.