BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-winged Dove In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

White-winged Dove in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 25× on the route-weighted index since 1999.

25×Since 1999TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-winged Dove has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 25× on the route-weighted index since 1999.

White-winged Dove In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-winged Dove in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.51–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.87Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.51–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-winged Dove in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.51–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19942029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.760.391.1
20260.790.421.1
20270.810.451.2
20280.840.481.2
20290.870.511.2

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording White-winged Dove in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PecosTEXAS292017
MentoneTEXAS232015
PanhandleTEXAS222021
CactusTEXAS192024
TwichellTEXAS122023
PostTEXAS112024
LamesaTEXAS112024
CircleTEXAS62024
FloydadaTEXAS42006
LimonCOLORADO32021
LoganNEW-MEXICO32022
FrionaTEXAS32021
Prospect Valley 2COLORADO22011
LakinKANSAS22018
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO22024
FloydNEW-MEXICO22024
RosebudNEW-MEXICO22003
PlainsTEXAS22015
TenmileTEXAS22012
MidlandTEXAS22022
DoughertyTEXAS22014
BoyeroCOLORADO12014
Cone MtnCOLORADO12006
NinaviewCOLORADO12018
Sheridan LakCOLORADO12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.