BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-winged Dove In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

White-winged Dove in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 931% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

+931%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-winged Dove has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 931% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-winged Dove in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 44% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.0–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+44%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-winged Dove in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 44% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.0–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.51.85.2
20263.61.95.2
20273.61.95.3
20283.72.05.3
20293.72.05.4

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording White-winged Dove in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RedlandsFLORIDA712024
KendallFLORIDA141991
WebbFLORIDA92024
Ridge HarborFLORIDA82024
Devils GardnFLORIDA62019
OcalaFLORIDA62024
St LucieFLORIDA52023
ShawanoFLORIDA52001
RomeoFLORIDA42018
MabelFLORIDA42007
ChildsFLORIDA42022
ArbuckleFLORIDA42019
DavieFLORIDA42017
Shawano 2FLORIDA42007
San AntonioFLORIDA32005
Indiantown 2FLORIDA32019
Pleasant Grove 2FLORIDA32022
CrewsvilleFLORIDA32023
IndiantownFLORIDA22016
Boca RatonFLORIDA21988
HomesteadFLORIDA22014
AripekaFLORIDA22008
Myakka Head 2FLORIDA22021
Mt. OliveFLORIDA22004
CitrusFLORIDA22018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.