BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-winged Dove In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

White-winged Dove in Sierra Madre Occidental has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-20%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for White-winged Dove in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-winged Dove in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.2 (95% range 0.00–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-winged Dove in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.2 (95% range 0.00–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.80.1517
20268.70.0117
20278.50.0017
20288.40.0017
20298.20.0017

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording White-winged Dove in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DragoonARIZONA922009
PomereneARIZONA782024
Mormon LakeARIZONA691969
Peña BlancaARIZONA452024
AmadoARIZONA412023
Bartlett ResARIZONA332024
McnealARIZONA322024
PatagoniaARIZONA292024
RedingtonARIZONA222023
SahuaritaARIZONA222024
PortalARIZONA172024
SunizonaARIZONA161997
CutterARIZONA152014
RuckerARIZONA142009
Sunizona 2ARIZONA92024
Carr MtnARIZONA72024
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO72024
San SimonARIZONA52024
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO42024
SprucedaleARIZONA32019
PrescottARIZONA12014
Aztec PeakARIZONA11977
Skull ValleyARIZONA12024
Clay SpringARIZONA12013
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.