BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-winged Dove In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

White-winged Dove in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 2004.

+107%Since 2004TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-winged Dove has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 2004.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-winged Dove in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 75% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.09–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±130%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+75%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.57Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±130%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-winged Dove in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 75% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.09–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±130%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19992029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.520.041.0
20260.540.051.0
20270.550.071.0
20280.560.081.0
20290.570.091.1

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording White-winged Dove in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HawleyTEXAS292013
ReedOKLAHOMA102017
CoopertonOKLAHOMA102014
RotanTEXAS102023
Pear ValleyTEXAS82024
Beaver CreekTEXAS62024
GirardTEXAS42019
WellingtonKANSAS32024
MertzonTEXAS32019
SilverTEXAS32024
CoatsKANSAS22019
MisslerKANSAS22015
StrattonNEBRASKA22019
ArthurNEBRASKA22021
EldoradoTEXAS22023
WallTEXAS22022
GoesselKANSAS12015
JamestownKANSAS12012
Beloit 2KANSAS12008
RandlettOKLAHOMA12019
ErickOKLAHOMA12009
HollisOKLAHOMA12013
ArapahoOKLAHOMA12013
WoodwardOKLAHOMA12021
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.