BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-winged Dove In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

White-winged Dove in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

14×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-winged Dove has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

White-winged Dove In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-winged Dove in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 9.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 8.0–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.0–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-winged Dove in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 9.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 8.0–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026117.215
2027117.416
2028127.616
2029127.816
2030128.016

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording White-winged Dove in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Devils R CynTEXAS812025
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS692009
CanutilloTEXAS542025
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO352019
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS282025
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO232025
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO192025
Ft. StocktonTEXAS192024
JornadaNEW-MEXICO112025
CastolonTEXAS112025
Van HornTEXAS112025
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO102025
Bear MtnTEXAS102025
OzonaTEXAS92022
RodeoNEW-MEXICO82025
PinonNEW-MEXICO82024
Casa PiedraTEXAS82025
GageNEW-MEXICO72025
ShafterTEXAS71985
GirvinTEXAS72025
PresidioTEXAS72025
Sierra BlancTEXAS72025
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO62025
Red RockNEW-MEXICO62025
LongfellowTEXAS62025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.