BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-winged Dove In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

White-winged Dove in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

16×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-winged Dove has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-winged Dove in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 9.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.9–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.9–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-winged Dove in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 9.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.9–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025117.115
2026117.316
2027127.516
2028127.716
2029127.916

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording White-winged Dove in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS692009
CanutilloTEXAS442024
PresidioTEXAS422023
Devils R CynTEXAS392024
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO352019
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO342024
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS202024
RodeoNEW-MEXICO192024
Ft. StocktonTEXAS192024
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO162024
LongfellowTEXAS132024
JornadaNEW-MEXICO112024
Sierra BlancTEXAS112024
MarfaTEXAS102016
OzonaTEXAS92022
PinonNEW-MEXICO82024
Van HornTEXAS82024
ShafterTEXAS71985
GageNEW-MEXICO62024
Dove Mtn.TEXAS62006
Ft. DavisTEXAS62023
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO52024
ComstockTEXAS52023
Black GapTEXAS52023
ToyahvaleTEXAS52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.