BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-winged Dove In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGeneralists

White-winged Dove in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 2001.

15×Since 2001TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-winged Dove has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 2001.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-winged Dove in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.08–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-winged Dove in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.08–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19972029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.060.18
20260.130.070.19
20270.130.070.19
20280.140.080.20
20290.140.080.20

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording White-winged Dove in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GeorgetownALABAMA132024
Bon SecourALABAMA52023
CitronelleALABAMA52023
Oak Grove 2FLORIDA42024
Dauphin Is 2ALABAMA32019
GreensburgLOUISIANA32017
ElbertaALABAMA22021
St. ElmoALABAMA22021
Bay MinetteALABAMA22007
Oak GroveFLORIDA22011
Ft Waltn BchFLORIDA22010
Port St JoeFLORIDA21999
HilliardFLORIDA22015
Dowling ParkFLORIDA22022
Cross CityFLORIDA22023
NecaiseMISSISSIPPI22021
NewtonALABAMA12023
WedgeworthALABAMA12024
EscatawpaALABAMA12018
Grove HillALABAMA12023
Latham 2ALABAMA12023
SandersonFLORIDA12005
Santa RosaFLORIDA11999
PinettaFLORIDA12012
Hildreth 2FLORIDA12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.