BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Broad-winged Hawk Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Broad-winged Hawk in Virginia has edged down: down 23% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-23%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Broad-winged Hawk Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Broad-winged Hawk in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Broad-winged Hawk Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Virginia is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.02–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Virginia is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.02–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.180.020.33
20260.180.020.33
20270.180.020.33
20280.180.020.33
20290.180.020.33

Broad-winged Hawk Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Broad-winged Hawk in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shenandoa Np320242011
W Augusta220241975
Tryme220111976
Partlow219831983
Covesville220131967
Wylliesburg220091978
Gladys220122007
Potts Mtn.220131992
Walkers220062006
Blacksburg220162016
Star Tannery119941977
Taylorstown119831983
Bald Knob120222000
Stanley120231969
Edinburg120131972
Jerome120231991
Great Falls119671967
Nat Tunnel120081993
Rural Retrt120131982
Isom120091970
Putnam120102004
Covington120241976
Newbern119771977
Fincastle119881977
Natural Brid120171987

Broad-winged Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.