BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Broad-winged Hawk Population Trend in Ohio

All statesGeneralists

Broad-winged Hawk in Ohio has surged: up 201% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

+201%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Broad-winged Hawk Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Broad-winged Hawk has surged in Ohio: up 201% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Broad-winged Hawk Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Ohio is projected to rise about 75% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+75%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Ohio is projected to rise about 75% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.000.19
20260.090.000.19
20270.090.000.19
20280.090.000.20
20290.090.000.20

Broad-winged Hawk Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Broad-winged Hawk in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Scioto Trail220131998
Birmingham220232022
Ray220191994
Omega220161987
Bolins Mills220172007
Wayne N.F.120171999
Kingsway120232023
Shawnee S.F.119961996
N Baltimore119931993
Tar Hollow120171994
Tick Ridge120121993
Pike S.F.120132013
Mohican S.F.120241994
Garrettsvile119901990
Strongsville119941994
Stonecreek119991999
No Kenton119791979
Baxter Ridge120222022
Newcomerstwn119841984
Dresden120221990
South Olive120241993
Wilgus120031997
New Marshfld119941994
Dell120011993
Coal Run119751975

Broad-winged Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.