BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Broad-winged Hawk Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Broad-winged Hawk in North Carolina has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-13%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Broad-winged Hawk Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Broad-winged Hawk in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Broad-winged Hawk Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in North Carolina is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in North Carolina is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.000.23
20260.110.000.23
20270.110.000.23
20280.110.000.23
20290.110.000.23

Broad-winged Hawk Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Broad-winged Hawk in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Highlands420231995
Mount Airy320162011
Raeford220132013
Broad Creek220042004
Saxapahaw219861986
Busick219981994
Sturgills220242016
Maple Hill220222012
Wilgrove220192015
Shallotte119911980
Merrimon120181989
Wards Corner120242024
Hallsboro120011998
Fairmont119801980
Sheep Ridge120082008
Uwharrie Nf119981993
Kinston119911991
Jordan119701969
Waterville120242011
Climax120231966
Mooresville120011985
Oakboro119691969
Table Rock120221996
Brevard120241969
Craven Gap119721972

Broad-winged Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.