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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Broad-winged Hawk Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesBirds of prey

Broad-winged Hawk in Arkansas has risen sharply: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+56%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Broad-winged Hawk Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Broad-winged Hawk has risen sharply in Arkansas: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Broad-winged Hawk Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Arkansas is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 0.43 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.13–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.31Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.13–0.4995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Arkansas is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 0.43 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.13–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.300.120.48
20270.300.120.48
20280.300.120.49
20290.310.130.49
20300.310.130.49

Broad-winged Hawk Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Broad-winged Hawk in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Magazine Mtn320251993
Maynard319931993
Locust Bayou220171975
Hope219961996
Blakely219991970
Havana220142010
Springhill220212021
Boston Mtn.220252000
Poyen 2220112010
Old Milo120251974
Ramsey119971988
Stamps120052002
Ashdown119951975
Ozark Nf120251994
South Bend119911971
Crows119911980
Poyen120021970
Hollywood120171974
Waldron120251984
Harrisburg119851980
Hatfield 2120242018
Saffell120071995
Rupert120241967
Stark120251967
Coal Hill120211980

Broad-winged Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.