BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Broad-winged Hawk Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

Broad-winged Hawk in Missouri has surged: up 262% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+262%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Broad-winged Hawk Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Broad-winged Hawk has surged in Missouri: up 262% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Broad-winged Hawk Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Missouri is projected to rise about 47% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.08–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+47%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–0.2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Missouri is projected to rise about 47% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.08–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.070.26
20260.170.070.26
20270.170.080.26
20280.170.080.27
20290.170.080.27

Broad-winged Hawk Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Broad-winged Hawk in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rueter 2520242024
Clementine320021992
Hayden220161989
Danville220232005
Syracuse220161986
Centertown220131974
Emden220232023
Auburn220212021
Miller220152015
Bennett220182001
Palace220192017
Clementine 2220052005
Pulaski120161987
Peace Valley119991992
Sweden120191984
Cassville119951973
Pineville120221980
Cp Girardeau120192019
Cascade120121978
Ironton119721972
Akers120071980
Wesco120211992
Handley119841984
Graydon120232022
Elmo120212021

Broad-winged Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.