BirdAnalyst
Species · Connecticut · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Broad-winged Hawk Population Trend in Connecticut

All statesBirds of prey

Broad-winged Hawk in Connecticut has surged: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+99%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Broad-winged Hawk Trends in ConnecticutNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Broad-winged Hawk has surged in Connecticut: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Broad-winged Hawk Population Forecast in Connecticut

If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Connecticut is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 0.50 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.00–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.31Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Connecticut is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 0.50 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.00–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.300.000.67
20270.310.000.67
20280.310.000.67
20290.310.000.68
20300.310.000.68

Broad-winged Hawk Survey Routes in Connecticut

Routes recording Broad-winged Hawk in Connecticut.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Woodstock220071981
No Woodbury220091969
Warren220081972
Long Hill220181981
New Hartford220161996
Warren 2220252023
Mystic120131975
E Hartland119771977
Buckingham119851985
Uncasville120221991
Westbrook119881987
Willimantic120171970
Sherman120181981
Greenwich120071995
Danbury120131972
Mid Haddam120251978
Southington120051978
New Hartford119841981
Woodstock 2120252023
Granby120182017

Broad-winged Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.